Hibs' post-split record in numbers and what it could mean this season

After that bitterly disappointing draw at Fir Park seven days ago, his Hibs side were consigned to a galling bottom six finish. It's the second time in three years the club has found itself in this position, and the anger which poured forth from supporters in the aftermath prompted the club to respond with an open letter which suggested major change is on the horizon.

The immediate task, however, is to find some late-season wins to improve the mood around Easter Road. The split has been in place since the 2000/01 campaign, and it can be both a blessing and a curse. You'd be hard pushed to find a Hibs fan who feels it's the former this time around, with their team now having very little to play for - tangibly, at least - between now and the end of May.

Here, we've taken a dig into Hibs' post-split numbers down the years, in search of some reasons to be cheerful(ish)...

Pre-split finishes

The message from the Easter Road boardroom in midweek was that it's 'simply unacceptable' for Hibs to not reach the top six, a sentiment supporters overwhelmingly agree with. Hibs having finished in the upper half 11 times since the split's inception in the 2000/01 campaign, compared to nine bottom half finishes, including this season.

The club's best run came between 2004/05 and 2009/10, finishing in the top six for six consecutive seasons. That, of course, took in the third and fourth place finishes under Tony Mowbray in 04/05 and 05/06, with the former's post-split scheduling including a memorable 3-1 win at Celtic Park via goals from Gary O'Connor, Scott Brown, and Ivan Sproule.

Those years, sadly, were followed by a dismal run of league placings - four consecutive years in the bottom six - that culminated in 2013/14's relegation. The less said about that one, the better.

Since returning to the Premiership in 2017/18, Hibs made the top half in four of the six completed seasons (2019/20 was ended pre-split with Hibs in seventh). That has, rightly so, reinforced the expectation that top six is the minimum requirement, and makes this season's failure sting that bit more.

Post-split record

Hibs have historically produced some very mixed post-split form. On only two occasions (2002/03 and 2012/13) have they won more than two from their final stretch of fixtures.

That 02/03 campaign was certainly the club's best post-split return, purely in terms of wins, taking maximum points in four of the five, albeit in the bottom half. Were it not for a horror start to the season (losing six of the first seven) and a jarring run of five defeats in a month between February and March, top six would have been more than attainable. As it happened, the four post-split wins saw Hibs finish with seven more points than sixth-placed Dundee.

Unsurprisingly, 2013/14 was Hibs' worst end to the season since the split was introduced, losing four of five matches to tumble into the relegation play-off. That was one of only three campaigns (2007/08 and 2018/19) in which they've failed to win any matches in the final stretch, with both of those following a top six place.

Overall, Hibs have averaged 5.56 points post-split. If we break that down further, it's been an average 4.36 points in the top six, and 5.66 in the bottom half. In recent years, 2022/23 was - despite a sense of sneaking in the back door - among Hibs' best post-split returns, taking eight points to secure a Europa Conference League qualification spot.

This season's prospects

The midweek open letter painted a rather ominous picture for Montgomery, emphasising that an immediate improvement in results is required. What constitutes a sufficient short-term upturn remains up for debate, but history suggests five wins from five is a remote prospect, even before considering Hibs have not recorded more than three consecutive Premiership victories all season (back in November), and just nine in total. Would it be fair to judge Montgomery negatively with anything less than a clean sweep? Perhaps, but it's indicative of the current situation that it's been suggested he needs to.

Hibs' record against the sides who will share the bottom half with them hasn't been altogether positive this season. They've drawn twice with Ross County, lost to St Johnstone, lost to Livingston, lost to Motherwell and drawn with Aberdeen, while also recording a win apiece over Saints, Livi, and the Dons.

READ MORE: Scaling the Hibs rebuild: Just how much change is coming?

That being said, it will be viewed as an opportunity to rack up wins to finish the campaign on a more positive note. They are nine points clear of County in the play-off position and - without unduly tempting fate - it would take a rather incredible series of events for Hibs to be dragged into that mire at the expense of the other teams below them. There is always a danger, though, in taking on sides fighting for their lives when you have very little to play for. 

Irrespective of anything else, Montgomery needs victories over these final weeks to re-establish confidence that he is the man to lead Hibs into the looming summer rebuild. Fortunes in this period for his predecessors has been undoubtedly mixed, and the current manager will need to buck that trend.