Hope certainly outweighs expectation when Celtic come to Easter Road these days, but even the most optimistic Hibs fans will have found their positive resolve tested by Sunday's 90 minutes.
David Gray's side were unable to lay a glove on the Premiership champions, who coasted to a 2-0 victory despite dropping their level quite noticeably in the second period. Two goals in the opening 19 minutes, though, were more than enough to beat a Hibs team with more than its fair share of issues. It's now two defeats from two in the new Scottish Premiership campaign and, if we're being realistic, the weekend's evidence suggests a Premier Sports Cup exit is likely at Celtic Park in six days' time.
Gray believes Hibs are in a period of short-term pain for long-term gain, and he will be acutely aware of the issues that were on show. From Sunday, you can point to problems in setup, suitability of personnel for required roles, and overall quality. Of course, Hibs' season won't be defined in games against Celtic, but a heavy defeat from St Mirren a week prior shows that closing the gap to the best team in the country is currently the least of their worries.
Here, we dig into the headline statistics, and analyse where the game got away from Gray's men.
Those headline figures above, sadly, do not give a false impression of how this game panned out. Hibs were dominated all over the pitch, and failed to force Kasper Schmeichel into even a single save. They struggled to even retain the ball for any significant time, with Celtic enjoying almost 80% possession. When Hibs did get it, they were wasteful, completing just 63% of their passes by full-time. They were particularly poor on the ball in the first-half, reflected in their pass completion being at just 56% come the interval.
The xG race chart below maps out how few opportunities Hibs (0.17xG) fashioned, and Celtic's (2.48xG) consistent chance creation throughout. If the match as it was played out 100 times, StatsBomb gives Hibs a whopping 0% chance of ever winning it.
The closest the home side came was through debutant Kieron Bowie clipping the bar from an acute angle, a moment almost entirely of his own making, and still rated at just 0.01xG. In fact, xG didn't even creep above 0 until after the 50th minute, and even then it was marginal.
Structural issues and errors lead to goals
It will frustrate Gray no end how quickly Hibs go from having an attacking throw in Celtic's final third to picking the ball out of their own net. Joe Newell does well to hassle Matt O'Riley into passing straight out of play, and he sprints over to take the throw-in himself. Mykola Kukharevych, though, fails to control the ball, Celtic clear, and Hibs find themselves in immediate danger. The issues start a few seconds prior. Even though Newell is clearly going for the quick throw, Jordan Obita runs still runs down the touchline as though he's taking it as normal. With Newell out of position, and Dylan Levitt pushing on, it leaves Josh Campbell as the only deep midfielder.
In this moment, Kukharevych simply has to hold the ball up and retain it, because Hibs are not set for a quick turnover in possession. The ball runs away from the striker and Greg Taylor clears towards Nicholas Kuhn in too much space. It's an unusual scenario, but one that perhaps requires Obita (who is almost off the pitch still when the ball gets to Kukharevych) to tuck in and cover with Newell out of position and Levitt bursting forward. As it happens, he stays wide and Campbell is left with too much space to cover, allowing Kuhn to send Kyogo in behind.
Several seconds pass before the ball ends up in the goal, but it's Kukharevych's slackness combined with Hibs' structure which leads to the attack. Once released, Kyogo is slowed down by Marvin Ekpiteta and Warren O'Hora, but neither can block the striker's shot. James Forrest reacts quicker than Lewis Miller to the rebound, and he squares for Kuhn to tap into an empty net with less than three minutes played.
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Conceding so early can disrupt anyone's best-laid plans, and Hibs continued to struggle from there on. It must be said, Celtic were very good for a prolonged spell, but Gray will feel his team did not make it hard enough for them. The head coach's midfield selection has come under scrutiny, starting with Newell and Campbell in a double pivot with Levitt advanced. But they struggled to deal with Celtic's midfield movement, nor were they able to stop Cameron Carter-Vickers playing dangerous passes. The high, and slightly wider positioning of Reo Hatate and Matt O'Riley created a gaping hole through the centre of the pitch into which Kyogo consistently dropped, with Ekpiteta and O'Hora reluctant to follow him. The instances below are all examples of Hibs entire midfield being wiped out with a single pass, all from Carter-Vickers, inside the first 20 minutes.
In the first example, Kyogo turns and drives into the final third, prompting Campbell to chop him down for a yellow card after only five minutes. Newell followed his midfield partner into the book shortly after, forcing both to play with an element of caution for most of a match that required aggression. Hibs were fortunate not to be punished in any of the scenarios above, and Gray made tweaks around the half-hour mark which did help, with Levitt and Campbell switching. By that time, though, his team were already two goals down.
The second goal calls to mind Gray's comments post-match at St Mirren, where he lamented errors leading to errors leading to errors. Ekpiteta overhits a back pass to Josef Bursik, one that leaves the goalkeeper scrambling to avoid conceding a corner, and his first-time clearance on the run doesn't get far. Celtic work it wide and too many Hibs players get attracted to the ball. On the inside, Campbell passes Hatate on to Ekpiteta.
While there's the possibility of a cross coming in, there's nothing wrong with Campbell adding an extra body in the box, but once Celtic start moving away from goal, he has scope to push out towards the advancing McGregor.
When the Celtic captain gets the ball, you can see Campbell caught in two minds as he looks at Hatate and hesitates, and he's probably entitled to wonder why none of the four players within a few yards of each other have spotted McGregor.
Campbell would also benefit from one of the centre-backs taking control and telling him to leave Hatate. McGregor's finish is devastating and Hibs are brutally punished again. The broader issue seems to be a lack of a defensive-minded number six. Campbell has played number 10 every week under Gray until Sunday, and this was always going to be a tough ask in a position that's never been his most natural.
Overall, Hibs did manage to stem the tide somewhat as the game progressed, but it felt more damage limitation than being truly able to affect the game. With Celtic up again this coming Sunday in the Premier Sports Cup last 16, a huge week lies ahead for Hibs to work on giving a better account of themselves second time around.
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